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The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) recently released the “U.S. Fruit and Tree Nut Outlook” report, indicating that the average walnut yield per acre in the United States in 2025 is expected to increase by 20% compared to 2024, rising from 1.63 tons per acre to 1.95 tons per acre. This yield increase is projected to offset a 1.4% reduction in bearing acreage, resulting in a total production increase of 107,000 tons from 603,000 tons in 2024 to 710,000 tons. The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) predicts that U.S. walnut bearing acreage will decline for the third consecutive year in 2025, decreasing from 370,000 acres in 2024 to 365,000 acres.
The report also notes that the latest trade data indicate that China’s walnut exports in the 2024/25 marketing year are expected to nearly double, surpassing the United States to become the world’s largest walnut exporter. However, Chinese walnut producers pursue different export market strategies compared to the U.S., largely because China does not widely cultivate light-colored, low-bitter walnut varieties such as Chandler and Hartley. Despite the increase in U.S. walnut yield and a rebound in production to 710,000 tons, output remains significantly below the record 828,000 tons in the 2023/24 season and is at a low level for the past decade. U.S. walnut exports are expected to decline by approximately 20% in the 2024/25 season, with walnut export prices increasing by over 50% from September 2024 to July 2025.
According to German media outlet Mundus Agri, walnut market prices in China have been continuously rising. Bearing acreage in major production areas, including Xinjiang, Hebei, Sichuan, and Yunnan, remains largely unchanged compared with last year. Most exporters have begun acquiring walnuts for the new season. The current price for in-shell walnuts of the 185 variety in Xinjiang is USD 2,000–2,100 per ton. Due to nearly depleted inventories in 2024, current prices remain high. In-shell walnuts have already been shipped since September, and 185 variety shelled walnuts will begin to be available from late September to early October.
New hybrid walnut varieties have already entered the market, with shelled walnuts shipped starting in mid-September. The new 2 variety is expected to be available by the end of September, with shipments postponed until late October. Yunnan shelled walnuts are also expected to be on the market by late September. Given the current zero inventory, prices are likely to remain at their current high levels. It is recommended that buyers wait until supply increases before making purchases.
